2017年4月24日周价格表

　　加拿大-土地&生猪公司

　　Canada – Land & Hogs Company

　　Bob Fraser –加裕公司安大略省销售& 服务

　　Bob Fraser – Sales & Service, Genesus Ontario

　　bfraser@genesus.com

　　我以前评论的安大略省土地和生猪公司，虽然听起来不像Bar X土地和养牛公司那样独特，但是再一次被证明是一个非常可持续模式。从下面2篇最近的报道中得出。

　　Although it may not sound as exotic as the Bar X Land & Cattle Company as I’ve commented before the Ontario Land & Hogs Company has proven once again to be a very sustainable model. I draw from two recent items in the news below.

　　来自-加拿大商业杂志

　　加拿大耕地价值增长放缓，其中大田作物价格的下降。

　　ERIC ATKINS

　　《环球邮报》/最近更新： 2017年4月10日，星期一，美国东部时间凌晨12:01

　　农业地产价值的波浪随着农作物价格和农业收入一同冷却下来。

　　根据加拿大农业信贷组织报告，耕地平均价值在2016年上涨了8%，与2015年相比增长了10%，与2014年相比增长了14%，皇冠公司是加拿大最大一家面向农民放贷的银行。

　　FCC首席农业经济学家J.P. Gervais说，驱动经济增长放缓，最大驱动是全球农业作物价格的下跌。

　　根据加拿大统计局报告，加拿大农场每英亩（包含建筑物）的平均价值，在2005年到2015年之间增加了一倍,增长到了2700美元。

　　安大略省位于名单首位,每英亩土地10000美元,其次是B.C.省5450美元和Quebec省5100美元。

　　From - CANADIAN BUSINESS

　　Growth slows for Canadian farmland value amid declining field-crop prices

　　ERIC ATKINS

　　The Globe and Mail | Last Updated: Monday, Apr. 10, 2017 12:01AM EDT

　　The surge in the value of agricultural real estate is cooling along with crop prices and farm revenues.

　　Average farmland values rose by 8 per cent in 2016, down from 10 per cent in 2015 and 14 per cent in 2014 according to Farm Credit Canada, the Crown corporation that is Canada’s biggest lender to farmers.

　　The biggest driver of the decline in growth is lower global prices for field crops, said J.P. Gervais, chief agricultural economist at FCC.

　　An acre on the average Canadian farm doubled in value between 2005 and 2015, to $2,700, including the buildings, according to Statistics Canada.

　　Ontario leads the list, at $10,000 an acre, followed by B.C. at $5,450 and Quebec at $5,100.

　　来自-Kevin Grier市场分析和咨询公司-加拿大猪肉市场回顾-2017年4月10日，星期一

　　安大略省的扩张

　　正如先前提到的，加拿大统计局2017年1月1日生猪存栏报告显示，加拿大母猪存栏相比2016年1月增长了1%。也就是相对加拿大123万头母猪总群体，增加了大约14,500头母猪。可以看出Manitoba省和Saskatchewan省的母猪存栏有一个非常微弱的下降，Alberta省已经增加了1%。British Columbia省进一步下降了4%，母猪群体已经变得非常小了。

　　就其本身而言，Quebec省今年1月1日的母猪数量相比去年1月1日，有一个高于平均近2%的增长。报告中同样有意思的是，安大略省相比2016年来说，是增长最大的一个省，有3.3%的增长率。事实上加拿大 14500头的净增长中，10000头是来自安大略省。更有趣的是2017年可能继续或超过这10000头的增长率。

　　From - Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting Inc. – Canadian Pork Market Review - Monday, Apr. 10, 2017 -

　　Ontario Expansion

　　As noted here previously, the Statistics Canada January 1, 2017 Hog Inventory report showed the Canadian sow inventory had increased by 1% compared to January 2016. That was an increase of about 14,500 sows for a total of 1.23 million sows in Canada. Both Manitoba and Saskatchewan saw very modest declines in the provincial sow herds while Alberta had a 1% increase. British Columbia’s already very small herd declined further by nearly 4%.

　　For its part, Quebec saw an above average growth of nearly 2% as of January 1 this year compared to January 1 2016. What was also very interesting about the report was that Ontario had the biggest increase of the provinces with a 3.3% growth rate in over the course of 2016. In fact of the 14,500 head net growth in Canada, 10,000 of that came from Ontario. What is even more interesting is that the 10,000 head rate of growth is likely to continue or to be exceeded in 2017.

　　那么这其中有关联吗？我当然没有统计，也没有科学或调查数据支撑，但是我倾向于说“是”，而且非常确定。尽管加拿大的经济增长一直相对温和，我们有接近70%的增长都来自安大略省。为什么？

　　哦，虽然过去三年生猪交易一直比2014的记录要好，但是很难提出充分的理由证明安大略省已经比加拿大其他任何地区要好。实际上安大略省随着Quality肉联厂的关闭和钩环的长期的短缺，你也许会说情况更糟。当然可用的加工商还没有不得不追逐生猪利润，“你的生猪将会在哪里屠宰”是一个值得持续关注的问题。然而我们转向第一篇针对土地价格的文章。我们看到安大略省的价格大约是全国平均水平的四倍，大约是邻省的两倍。安大略省每英亩土地平均价格超过10,000美元。我相信大多数观察者认为，安大略省西南部的七个县生猪饲养区域还有85%提升，每英亩土地平均价格将接近20,000美元。这样具有挑战性的时期，担负着相当大的压力。感谢你不能套出股本，现金流才是王道。但是硬资产的担保（至少现在是升值）是一个极大的安慰。许多安大略省的长期生产商(25岁以上)指出，虽然自耕农也许看起来更容易和更有吸引力(当然是在过去数年)，但也只能够保持生存。并不能购买很多东西。是生猪才使得大家有能力购买下一个猪场、设备、栏位。。。

　　So is there a correlation here? I’m certainly no statistician and have no scientific or survey data to support it but I would be inclined to say yes, and a very strong one at that. Although growth in Canada has been relatively moderate we have close to 70% of that growth coming from Ontario. Why?

　　Well, although the last three years in hog business have been good with 2014 one for the record books it would be difficult to make a case for Ontario to have been in any better than any other region of Canada. In fact with closing of the Quality Meats packing plant and the perpetual shortage of shackles in Ontario you could make a case for it being worse. Certainly the available packers haven’t had to chase hogs and the question of “where are you going to get your hogs slaughtered” is a virtual constant concern. However we then turn to the first article on land prices. We see Ontario prices approximately four times the national average and approximately twice the next nearest province. Further the $10,000 per acre is the Ontario average. Most observers I believe would suggest that the seven counties in South western Ontario that would comprise 85% plus of the hog raising area the average land price would be closer to $20,000 per acre. This gives you considerable ballast for challenging times. Appreciate you can’t eat equity and ultimately cash flow is king. But the backstop of a hard asset (that at least for now is appreciating) is a great comfort to the bank. Many an Ontario long term (25+ years) producer have spoken to point out that although dirt farming perhaps looks easier and more appealing (certainly over the last number of years) it just makes you a living. It doesn’t buy much of anything. It is the hogs that bought the next farm, the equipment, the barns…

　　驱动安大略省巨大价格的因素很多。安大略省有很多配额（供应管理乳制品和羽毛）等同于现金流。这些低利率产品使得他们追逐土地。经济作物的农民直到最近一直运转良好，因此他们在搜寻。随着以上观点的指出，养猪户已经认为这对于他们的模式是一个可持续的因素。再加上城市压力(安大略省西南部是加拿大人口最多的地区)促进活跃的商品经济,正如他们说的“土地是不能再造的东西”。

　　As to what drives this tremendous price in Ontario a lot of factors. There is a lot of quota (supply managed dairy & feathers) in Ontario with equity and cash flow. This with low interest rates has them chasing land. The cash crop farmers until lately have had a good run so they’re in the hunt. As pointed out the hog farmer has come to see this as a very sustainable ingredient to there model. This coupled with urban pressure (South western Ontario is the most populous region in Canada) makes for a heady mix on a commodity as they say “they’re not making any more of”.

　　作为这地平线上能够掀起任何暴风雨的媒体，曾经推动在GTA(大多伦多地区)房价上充满了可怕的警告，也波及到了安大略西南部。这是一个泡沫吗？它扩大到耕地价格了吗? 谁知道呢，我相信当你开始思考任何事情只会朝着向上或向下方向走时，你很可能最终会失望。养猪生产者可能是独特的例子，跟这样一种信念相反，因为在这样一个看起来像是星期天坐过山车的商业周期中，他们肯定没有一颗脆弱的心。当然利率上升将改变计算方式，但对于原始的土地集约者来说，长期用玉米饲养生猪，然后猪的粪便返田，看起来像一个很成功，可持续的模式。

　　As to any storm clouds on this horizon the press is full of dire warnings on ever accelerating house prices in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) and rippling out into all of South western Ontario. Is it a bubble and does it extend to farmland prices? Who knows but I’ve come to believe when you get to thinking anything can only go one way be it up or down you will most likely end up disappointed. Hog producers are probably uniquely inoculated against such a belief, as they’re certainly in a business not for the faint of heart with a cycle that can make a rollercoaster ride look like a Sunday drive. Certainly rising interest rates will change the math but for the long game the original integrators of land to corn to hogs to manure and back around looks like a very winning, sustainable model.

　　欢迎Sarah Ethier 加入加裕公司

　　Genesus Welcomes Sarah Ethier

　　加裕公司非常高兴地宣布，Sarah Ethier被任命为遗传学技术员。Sarah Ethier 2014年毕业于萨斯喀彻温大学，随后就职于Prairie养猪中心有限公司，担任研究技术员。在萨斯喀彻温大学期间，Sarah Ethier大学期间曾以暑期实习生的身份在Saskatoon 的Prairie养猪中心有限公司实习过。Sarah的新工作中，她将为加裕核心群和研发群体提供超声和技术服务，协助协调和管理项目的研究和发展，以及组织样品收集，数据支持加裕基因组评估项目。“我们期待Sarah会对加裕公司做出贡献，她的技能，希望加入养猪行业，先前的工作经验，持续的学习欲望，使得她非常适合这个岗位。我们基因和研发项目一直在扩张，寻找合适人选支持，推动这些项目前进，是加裕公司未来的一个关键。”遗传项目和研发项目副总裁Bob Kemp博士谈到。

　　Sarah拥有Saskatchewan大学动物科学专业农业和生物资源学士学位和Lethbridge大学动物科学专业农业技术毕业证书。

　　Genesus is very pleased to announce the appointment of Sarah Ethier to the position of Genetics Technician.  Since her graduation from the University of Saskatchewan in 2014, Sarah has worked at the Prairie Swine Centre Inc. as a research technician. She had previously worked at the Prairie Swine Centre Inc. as a summer student while attending university in Saskatoon. In her new role, Sarah will provide ultrasound and technical services to Genesus nucleus and R&D herds, assist with coordination and management of research and development projects and tissue sample collection and database in support of the Genesus genomic eva luation program. “We look forward to Sarah’s contributions to Genesus, her skill set, desire to be involved in the swine industry, previous experience, and continuing desire to learn make her an excellent choice for this position. Our genetic and R&D programs are continuing to expand and finding the right people to support and move these programs forward is a key to the future of Genesus” says Dr. Bob Kemp, VP of Genetic Programs and R&D.

　　Sarah holds a Bachelor of Agriculture and Bio-Resources with an Animal Sciences Major from the University of Saskatchewan and a Diploma in Agricultural Technology, Animal Science major from the Lethbridge College.