加裕养猪评论

　　Pork Commentary

　　加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long

　　Jim Long, President-CEO Genesus Inc.

　　2017年2月6日

　　February 6, 2017

　　中国市场最新进展

　　China Market Update

　　2016年中国   中国已成为2016全球养猪业的大主顾。中国猪肉供应减少导致欧盟和北美的大量出口猪肉。很明显，中国的增加进口对于主要出口猪肉的地区无疑是个好消息

　　2016年中国China has been the big story in the Global Swine industry in 2016.The lower supply of pork in China led to large pork exports from E.U. and North America. It is obvious that the increase in China imports has been a panacea for the major pork exporting regions.

　　在Genesus，我们注意到中国是我们的大市场。去年， 世界42%的良种畜出口到中国。

　　At Genesus, we pay attention to China as it is a big market for us. Last year, Genesus exported 42% of all Breeding stock into China from the whole world.

　　生猪市场价格是供给和需求的晴雨表。上周，中国生猪平均价格为每公斤18.33元。相当于每磅活重（牲畜被宰杀前的重量）1.21美元，或270磅的生猪市场，326美元。同样的市场生猪在美国是132美元。几乎每头有200美元的差异。我们都知道包装商只支付他们不得不支付的部分！每磅1.21美元（约合326美元）是供给和需求的真实反映。

　　Market Hog Prices are the indicator of supply and demand. Last week, China hog prices averaged 18.33 RMB per kilogram. That is $1.21 US lb Liveweight, or for a 270 lb market hog, $326 USD. The same market hog in the US is $132. Almost a $200 US per head difference. We all know packers only pay what they have to! The $1.21 US lb ($326) is a true reflection of supply and demand.

　　以下是最近由加拿大种猪出口协会中国代表胡松摘录的一份报告：

　　Following are excerpts of a Report recently by Hu Song of CSEA China:

　　根据温氏集团（中国的最大生猪生产商）“中国生猪产业2016盈利丰厚，生猪价格约每只668元（合98美元）。业内人士对酉鸡2017年的形势保持谨慎乐观。2015～2016年间全国生猪数据的比较表明，国内猪肉人均消费量下降了1.4%。2016出售给市场的猪总数约为6亿7100万只，较2015年相比下跌5.1%。猪肉总产量也减少了2.7%。鉴于2016年的盈利，养猪场放慢宰杀母猪，因此2016年较少的母猪被宰杀。同时，生猪生产者的动机是扩大母猪存养量，高健康纯种和F1母猪的需求很高，许多著名的猪养殖场已经在2017年整个一年中将其产品预售出去。2016年的全国母猪库存增加1.5%，更有可能在2017年有所增加。2016年的猪肉进口持续增长，较2015增长了112.1%。详细数据包括在表1下面。”

　　“The Chinese hog industry had a happy 2016 with profitable hog price about 668 Yuan ($98US) per animal according to 温氏集团 the largest hog producer in China. The industry is also cautiously optimistic about the year of rooster 2017. The comparison of national pig data between 2015 and 2016 indicates that domestic pork consumption per capita declined by 1.4%. The total number of pigs sold to market in 2016 was about 671 million, reduced by 5.1% against 2015. The total pork yield is also reduced by 2.7%. Given the profitability in 2016, pig farms slowed down the culling of sows, less sows were culled in 2016. Meanwhile, hog producers are motivated to expand the sow herds, high health purebred and F1 gilts are highly demanded, many reputable pig breeding farms have pre-sold out the products for the entire year 2017. The national sow inventory was increased by 1.5% in 2016, more likely in 2017. The import of pork continuously rise in 2016, increased by 112.1% comparing with 2015. Detail breakdown data is included in Table 1 below.”

　　值得注意的是，中国在2016消费了55120000吨猪肉。2016，中国进口了1，650，000吨猪肉。猪肉进口总量仅占猪肉消费总量的3%。似乎没有什么，但确实是所有出口猪肉国家一个大的价格助推器。我国农民算术告诉我们进口总额等于4500万生猪市场，中国市场的平均重量。

　　Of note, China in 2016 consumed 55,120,000 tons of pork. In 2016, China imported 1,650,000 tons of pork. The total pork imported is only 3% of total pork consumption. Next to nothing, but a big price booster for all exporting pork countries. Our farmer arithmetic tells us the total imports were equal to 45 million market hogs, average China market weight.

　　生产力是巨大挑战，每头母猪每年销售15.66。疾病和高死亡率仍居高不下。此外，猪的遗传利用滞后。业内具有较高的盈利能力，似乎许多市场生猪有被养殖牲畜的资格。上限生产潜力。每头母猪每年生产1.242公斤的肉有很大的生产空间。最后，最大的因素是13亿8000万人平均人均消费39.9公斤猪肉（88磅），并且我们现在和之后的仍有巨大的需求。

　　Productivity is a challenge, marketed per sow per year is 15.66. There are big disease challenges and mortality is high. Also, swine genetics utilisation lags behind. With high profitability in the industry, it seems many market hogs qualify for breeding stock. This caps productivity potential. Meat produced per sow per year at 1.242 kg has lots of room for improvement. In the end, the biggest factor is 1.38 billion people averaging 39.9 kg pork consumption per capita (88 lbs), and you got the huge demand now and for our lifetime.

　　其他观察

　　Other Observations

　　当前市场

　　Current Market

　　断奶猪每公斤37.82元  -- 20公斤猪110美元Weaner pigs 37.82 RMB/kg – 20kg pig $110 US

　　玉米每公斤1.54元  = 每Corn 1.54 RMB/kg = $5.70 US/bushel

　　豆粕每公斤3.33元=每吨440美元Soybean meal 3.33 RMB/kg = $440 US/ton

　　总生猪成本 – 分娩到育肥 = 每头263美元Total Hog Cost – Farrow to Finish = $263 US per head

　　当前分娩到育肥利润668元=每头98美元Current margin Farrow to Finish 668 RMB = 98$ US per head

　　温氏集团2016年生产和出栏了17500000头猪。按每头猪98美元（668元），可以获得大约17亿利润。在合适的时候有这么多猪太好了！

　　 produced and marketed 17,500,000 head in 2016. At 98 US per head (668 RMB), could be around $1.7 billion in profit. It’s good to own lots of pigs at the right time!

　　总结

　　Summary

　　当我们关注中国生猪价格和当前母猪库存最小的增加（60，000），我们预计在可预见的未来可将生猪肉持续大量出口到中国。

　　When we look at hog prices in China and the minimum increase (60,000) in the current sow inventory, we expect continued large exports to China for the foreseeable future.

　　Gene Editing-Altering

　　上周，我们写了关于U.S.FDA的建议，有转基因改变处理批准程序（类似于批准一种新的药物）。我们写道，我们关注的是整个过程可能会危及猪肉需求和影响消费者接受力。PIC的努力：PRRS是可行的。我们同意。但要点不是这个。于1999年在盖尔弗大学研发的Enviropigs案例。基因改造猪直到2012年培育了10代。从未批准食用。没有市场。在我们看来，消费者需求的变化使得这样的产品更难向前推进。下面是一篇来自纽约时报的文章：Enviropigs.

　　Last week, we wrote about U.S. FDA’s proposal to have Gene Editing-Altering treated with an approval procedure similar to a new drug. We wrote that we are concerned on how the whole process could jeopardize pork demand and consumer acceptance. PIC’s efforts re: PRRS is doable. We agree with that. That’s not our point. A case in point in the Enviropigs, developed at the University of Guelph in 1999. The Gene Altered pig was kept in production until 2012, 10 generations. Never approved for food chain. There was no market. In our opinion, the change in consumer wants has made such a product harder to move forward with. Below is an article from the New York Times re: Enviropigs.

　　Move to Market Gene-Altered Pigs in Canada Is Halted

　　By:  Andrew Pollack

　　根据首席研究员所知，有一个加拿大项目，其旨在创建一个基因工程猪使其粪便对环境的危害较小，但是并没有找到一家公司愿意把该项目推向市场，因此之后被停止。

　　A Canadian project aimed at creating a genetically engineered pig whose manure would be less harmful to the environment is being halted after failure to find a company willing to bring the animal to market, according to the lead researcher.

　　污染少的猪，被称为“enviropig，”它有一个基因能够更好地消化食物中的磷，从而减少粪便中磷的含量。安大略猪肉，这是一个有组织的养猪户， 该项目在盖尔弗大学得到财政支持，但此时已被决定停止继续对此项目开支。

　　The less polluting pig, called the “enviropig,” has a gene that allows it to better digest phosphorous in its food, therefore reducing the amount of phosphorous in the manure. Phosphorous can contribute to algal blooms and other environmental problems. Ontario Pork, an organization of hog farmers that had been financially supporting the project at the University of Guelph in Ontario, has decided to stop spending money on it.

　　Cecil Forsberg是此项目的一位共同发明人，也是大学分子生物学的名誉教授，他同意了这个决定。

　　Cecil Forsberg, an emeritus professor of molecular and cellular biology at the university who was a co-inventor of the pig, said he agreed with the decision.

　　当第一个这样的猪（该项目）在1999创建时，Forsberg 博士说：“我有感觉在七或八年或九年，转基因动物可能会被接受。但是我错了。”

　　When the first such pig was created in 1999, “I had the feeling in seven or eight or nine years that transgenic animals probably would be acceptable. But I was wrong,” Dr. Forsberg said.

　　他说：“是时候停止这个计划了，直到世界其他地方赶上为止。”“它也将迎头赶上。”

　　“It’s time to stop the program until the rest of the world catches up,” he said. “And it is going to catch up.”

　　选择食物供给时，民众都接受不含转基因动物，但在许多消费者在民意调查中说，他们会谨慎食用它们。

　　No genetically engineered animals have been approved for use in the food supply. But many consumers say in opinion polls that they would be wary of eating them.

　　转基因猪是通过老鼠的遗传物质和降低猪粪便中磷的大肠杆菌这些物质来制造的。盖尔弗大学于1995开始研究，并且，几年前，在加拿大和美国试图寻求监管部门的食品安全获得批准。虽然加拿大在2010二月批准了对于猪的繁殖，但没有一个政府批准它用于人类消费，而且没有一只猪在商业上销售。

　　The genetically altered pig was created using genetic material from a mouse and an E. coli bacterium to reduce phosphorus in the pig’s feces. The University of Guelph began the research in 1995 and sought food safety approval from regulatory authorities in Canada and the United States a few years ago. While Canada approved reproduction of the pig in February 2010, no government has approved it for human consumption and none of the pigs have been sold commercially.

　　Forsberg博士说：兽群中的16头猪，其中一些代表转基因动物的第十代，它们会被杀死的。但如果有公司愿意将此猪推向市场，需要将其精液冷冻保存，猪群才能重现市场。

　　The 16 pigs in the herd, some of them representing the 10th generation of transgenic animals, will be killed, Dr. Forsberg said. But frozen semen is being saved so that the herd could be recreated if a company was found that would be willing to market the pigs.

　　Top of Form

　　“我们已经做了足够的研究，我们认为，如果行业感兴趣，他们应该能够把它拾起来，” Forsberg博士说。

　　“We’ve done enough research that we feel that if industry is interested they should be able to pick it up,” Dr. Forsberg said.

　　Forsberg博士还说，在中国，各个大学已经开始有一些讨论，却没有达成协议。

　　Dr. Forsberg said the university has had some discussions with parties in China but no deal was reached.

　　反对转基因食品的团体，对这项研究表示失望，宣称要停止该项研究，加拿大环境组织也一样。并且一些环保人士说，猪将有助于工业化的养殖方式，这将对环境有害，即使它的粪便污染少。农民现在可以给猪补充饲料，以帮助他们消化磷。Forsberg博士说，补充饲料不是很昂贵，这意味着农民接受转基因动物，并且也不需要过多的财政激励。

　　Groups opposed to genetically modified food, hailed the halting of the research, as did Canadian environmental groups. Some environmentalists said the pig would contribute to industrialized farming in ways that would be harmful to the environment, even if its manure was less polluting. Farmers now can give pigs a supplement in their feed to help them digest phosphorus. Dr. Forsberg said that supplement had become less expensive, meaning there was less financial incentive for farmers to accept the transgenic animals.