2017年中国市场报告

　　China Market Report Jan 2017

　　鸡年对中国养猪业的回顾和沉思

　　A time for recollection and contemplation for the Chinese Pig Industry in the Year of the Chicken

　　加裕种猪公司中国区总经理 Alexander Kovachevich

　　Alexander Kovachevich, GM China Area, Genesus Genetics

　　根据中国的属相，2017年是鸡年。尽管鸡被认为是一个积极的属相，有忠诚和坚持不懈的特征，但是通常来说本命年（对于鸡来说）都不是很好过。

　　According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2017 is the Year of the Chicken. While the chicken sign is seen as quite a positive sign, with attributes such as loyalty and persistence, it is commonly said that one’s ‘own year’ (本命年) is a difficult one.

　　当说起消费者对于蛋白质的消费习惯 时，我们看的是3个竞争类别，鸡蛋，鸡肉和猪肉。一个类别的高价通常会导致人们竞相选择另外一种消费。由于猪肉价格走高已经一年多，有人预测猪肉行业在2017年将面临艰难的一年，但是据我们了解情况并不是这样。

　　When looking at consumers’ consumption habits of protein, we look at three ‘competing’ groups, eggs, chicken meat and pork. High prices for one generally leads to people choosing more of the other. While pork prices have been high for over a year, one could assume that the pork industry will face a tough year in 2017, but from what we understand this will not be the case.

　　总体来说，2016年对于养猪户来说是极其好的一年，由于2015年大量的母猪淘汰，年初供不应求获得了稳定的高猪价，低饲料价格和新建场面临的极其严格的环保要求的更高门槛。尽管进口猪肉量从2015年的120万吨提高到了2016年的150万吨，这样的价格依然不能使本土猪价下降。

　　In general, 2016 has been an extremely good year for pig producers, starting with less supply than demand due to large sow culls in 2015 leading to stable high pork prices, low feed prices and a higher barrier for new farms, in the way of extremely tough environmental requirements. Although pork imports have increased by a factor of 1.2 from 2015 to 2016 to 1.5 Million tonnes, this level is still far from causing domestic prices to fall.

　　所以2017年有什么值得期待的呢？中央政府正采取措施将养猪生产撤离诸如广东省这样的成熟的城镇区域，移除了一些猪场，同时为在一些人口稀少，饲料原料供应更方便的乡村区域建新场提供一些补贴，主要是东三省。正在发生的转变是养猪生产逐渐从中国的中南部向东北部和西南部转移。

　　So what can we expect from 2017?   The central government is moving pig production away from built up areas such as Guangdong province, physically removing farms, while at the same time in some areas is giving subsidies for farms to be built in rural areas that have a less dense population and better access to feed crops, mainly the three provinces of the North East.  A shift in pig populations from central and southern China to the north east and south west is happening.

　　除了猪场位置的变化，猪场规模也在发生变化。一些小型的家庭猪场正在退出，主要是由于要么太靠近人口增长的城镇，要么不符合环保法律。一些大企业正在建新场，只有这些大企业有资金和经验来修建和管理这些新场。这一变化趋势带来的一个效应就是那些容易成为疾病来源的小规模的非专业化经营的猪场减少了。我最近接触过的一些养殖户们认为这是中国养猪生产行业变化的一个关键点。散养猪场退出的另一个影响可能会是，在生物安全要求降低并且猪场员工在上班时间以后可以被允许在猪场外有更多活动时间的前提下大猪场或许更容易招到员工。

　　Apart from the locations of pig farming the scale is changing as well. Small family farms are being removed, this is due to either their location, too close to growing towns or non-compliance with environmental laws. The new farms are being built by large companies, only these have the funds and experience to build and run them. One resulting effect of this trend is that one common source of disease, which some smaller less professionally run farms are, is being reduced. Some producers that I have spoken to recently see this as a key point in the changing of the Chinese pig production industry. Another impact of no backyard farms could mean that farm labour on the bigger farms may be easier to recruit if bio security requirements can be reduced and farm workers are allowed to spend more time out of the farm after working hours.

　　随着一般猪场规模的扩大，猪场效率和生产力也不断提高。从长远来说会降低生产成本并使猪价保持稳定。伴随着更高的入市成本，养猪农民们将关注如何在艰难时期提高效率，而不是像现在一样当猪价低的时候把种猪都宰杀了退出游戏。

　　As the average farm scale increases, so should its efficiency and productivity. Both leading to lower production costs and lower and more stable pork prices in the long run. With the higher cost of entry pig farmers will look to improve efficiency in lean times against the current practice now of killing breeding stock and leaving the game when pork prices were low.

　　随着越来越多的专业养殖场的出现，可以预测的是平均屠宰重也会更大。同样的固定成本出肉更多。在当前扩张计划完成后，我们预计会看到在猪肉生产量增加的同时猪群规模保持稳定。

　　With more professional farming it can be expected that heavier average slaughter weights will be achieved. More meat for the same fixed costs. After the current expansion plans are complete we can expect to see herd sizes remaining stable while pork production increases.

　　当养猪企业做得更大，屠宰他们自己的猪就变得更常见。猪肉品牌化也会增加。猪场会获得更多利润，并有一个消费者可追溯的完整的生产链。

　　As companies become larger then slaughtering their own animals will become more common. Branding of pork will also increase. More profit for the farms and a complete chain of traceability for consumers.

　　对于这些大型养殖户们来说，需要一种高产的，易于管理的母猪和健壮的仔猪将会更为重要。加裕公司有令人艳羡的优势地位，能够为中国提供所需的最合适的种猪，2016年进口到中国的几乎一半种猪都来自加裕。我们认为这一趋势会延续，进口GGP的市场份额会继续增加。

　　The need for a prolific, easy to manage sow, with large litters and robust piglets will become even more important for these large producers. Genesus sees itself as being in the enviable position of being able to provide the right genetics for China and in 2016 almost half the breeding stick imported to China was from Genesus. We see this trend continuing with the market share of imported GGP to continue to increase.

　　看到这么多大规模养猪生产带来的好处，或许对于鸡们来说的确不是好过的一年，但是对于猪是很好的一年！

　　yangWith all the positives that come with larger scale pig production it may indeed be a bad ‘own year’ for the chickens but it’s looking good for the pigs!

　　NGUYEN VAN HUNG 加入加裕

　　NGUYEN VAN HUNG JOINS GENESUS

　　我们很开心的宣布Nguyen Van Hung被加裕公司指派为越南技术销售经理。

　　We are pleased to announce that Nguyen Van Hung has been appointed as Technical Sales Manager, Vietnam for Genesus Inc.

　　Hung 在Nong Lam Hue 大学拿到了学士学位，从Nong Lam Thu Duc 大学取得了育种方面的硕士学位。

　　Hung has a Bachelor Degree from the Nong Lam Hue University and a Master Degree from the Nong Lam Thu Duc University with focus on genetics.

　　Hung 的经历包括

　　Hung’s Experience includes:

　　在Binh Thang 拥有12年培训和研发工作经历，主要从事

　　12 years work at Binh Thang Training & Research center with main tasks:

　　进行猪饲喂，动保和育种方面的研究

　　Carry out research on pig feeding, animal health care, breeding.

　　猪场技术Farm technical

　　农场经理（2005到2007年猪和家禽）Manager of Farm (pig and poultry from 2005 to 2007)

　　把养猪生产技术传播给农户

　　Transfer technologies of pig production to farmers

　　对农户和技术人员进行以下培训

　　Train both farmers and technicians on the following topics:

　　猪营养和健康保护Pig Nutrition and Health Care

　　猪育种和繁殖Pig Breeding and Reproduction

　　中小型规模的养猪生产Pig Production on Medium and Small Scale

　　在Japfa Comfeed Long An 四年工作经历

　　4 years work at Japfa Comfeed Long An with main tasks:

　　为整个生产体系制作经营方案并执行

　　Make a business plan for whole production system and carry out

　　技术服务Technical service

　　母猪场合育肥场的管理和控制（GP—父母代，租赁和合同猪场）

　　Manage and control of the sow & finisher system (GP – PS, rental and contract farms)

　　在Japfa海波尔育种公司的4年工作经历

　　More than 4 years work at Japfa Hypor Genetics company with main tasks:

　　GGP核心场经理，100%从加拿大进口

　　Manager of Nucleus farm (GGP) with breed imported 100% from Canada.

　　母猪体系的管理和控制Manage and control of the sow system

　　断奶到育肥的管理和控制Manage and control of the wean to finish

　　GP母猪选育和销售GP gilt selection and sales

　　“Hung为加裕团队带来了丰富的养猪生产专业技术和知识。他所拥有的技能和加裕公司设定的为日益增加的加裕客户最大化遗传进展和经济效益的目标相吻合。”东南亚总经理Paul Anderson 说道。

　　“Hung brings a wealth of pig production expertise and knowledge to the Genesus team. His skills are in line with the Genesus goal to continue to maximise genetic progress and profitability for the growing number of Genesus customers.” ~ Paul Anderson General Manager for S.E. Asia.

　　To contact Nguyen Van Hung

　　+84 918679012

　　Hung@genesus.com