加裕养猪评论

Pork Commentary

总裁兼CEOJim Long　　

President-CEO Genesus Inc.

2017年3月13日

March 13, 2017

美国和加拿大存栏上升3%

United States and Canada Inventory Up 3%

　　一年两次，美国和加拿大生猪存栏合并一起。这是一个有意义的数据，因为两个国家在本质上是一个大库存和生产基地。实际上是一个完整的大陆市场。上周，最新的报道已经发布。

　　美国和加拿大在2016年12月的所有生猪存栏是8520万头。较2015年12月上升了3%，较2014年12月上升了5%。种猪存栏734万头，比1年前上升了1%，比2014年上升了2%……市场生猪存栏7790万头，比去年上升了4%，比2014年上升了6%。半年度生猪产量为7870万头，较2015年上升了2%，较2014年上升了55。在此期间分娩母猪734万头，较去年上升了2%，较2014年上升了1%。

　　Twice a year, the United and Canadian Swine Inventories are combined together. It is a significant number, as the two countries are in essence one large inventory and production base. It's a virtually integrated continental market. Last week, the latest report was released.

　　United States and Canadian Inventory of all hogs and pigs for December 2016 was 85.2 million head. This was up 3% from December 2015, and up 5% from December 2014. The breeding inventory, at 7.34 million head, was up 1% from a year ago and 2% from 2014. Market hog inventory, at 77.9 million head, was up 4% from last year and up 6% from 2014. The semi-annual pig crop at 78.7 million head was up 2% from 2015, and up 5% from 2014. Sow farrowing during this period totalled 7.34 million, up 2% from last year and up 1 % from 2014.

　　以上数据表明联合育种群体同比去年增加了59000头母猪。不算是大规模扩张。这一数字在加拿大同比增加了14000头。我们发现有趣的是合计生猪产量同比上升了2%，大约是180万头。平均到26周，那么每周约有70000多头！

　　在这生猪产量进入市场的时候，随着美国正在收割当季农作物，我们预估新鲜农作物将会增加生猪产量到每周近200000头。70000到200000，我们的加工业产能将会更加富足，并且能够稳定猪肉价格。

　　The numbers show the combined breeding herd has climbed some 59,000 sows year over year. Not exactly a massive expansion. In that number is an increase of 14,000 in Canada year over year. What we find interesting is the combined pig crop was up 2% or about 1.8 million head year over year. Divided by 26 weeks, that would be about 70,000 more per week.

　　With the new US harvesting plants coming on stream when this pig crop is going to market, we calculate that the new plants will increase capacity almost 200,000 head a week. 70,000 for 200,000, seems to us packer capacity will be plentiful and this should support hog prices.

　　其他观察

　　Other Observations

　　“1月美国猪肉出口持续强劲。墨西哥仍然保持巨星势头，比去年同期增加了35.8%。出口到所有国家的猪肉总量在2017年1月上涨了19%，总额是45700万磅。除墨西哥以外，其他主要成员是韩国（上涨33%，4900万磅），当然还有日本，9800万磅。中国是3400万磅，大约于去年同期保持一致。中国巨大的进口增额主要被欧洲供应商垄断。

　　”US Pork Exports continued strong in January. Mexico continues to be a superstar, taking 35.8% more than the same month a year ago. The total pork exports to all countries up 19% from January 2017, total was 457 million pounds. Other major players other than Mexico were South Korea （up 33% at 49 million pounds）， and of course Japan at 98 million pounds. China was 34 million, about the same as a year ago. China's huge import increases have mostly been captured by European suppliers.

　　“上周美国肉仔鸡群体爆发了几例禽流感。鸡群已经被销毁。韩国猪肉进口，正如早前所见，价格突升。加裕公司是韩国主要种猪供应商之一。我们与韩国市场保持密切联系。过去几个月在韩国发生的禽流感已经损失了35%的仔鸡，鸡蛋，和肉鸡。现在不仅禽肉和禽蛋的短缺，一些消费者还担心食用禽肉会导致死亡。上周，韩国猪肉价格4707韩元/公斤，相当于每磅活重（牲畜被宰杀前的重量）1.31美元，或每头市场生猪350美元。如果美国肉鸡群体感染禽流感，那将会发生什么？值得怀疑，但是如果真的发生了，那将是黑天鹅事件。

　　”There have been a couple Avian Flu outbreaks in the USA in chicken broiler flocks in the last week. Flocks have been destroyed. South Korean pork imports, as you saw earlier, have jumped. Genesus is a major supplier of swine genetics to South Korea. We have continual contact with that market. Avian flu in South Korea has destroyed in the last few months 35% of the chicken, egg, and broiler flocks. There is not only a shortage of poultry meat and eggs, but some consumers are fearful of dying if they eat poultry. Last week, South Korean hog price was 4,707 KRW/kg, or $1.31 US liveweight/lb. That's $350 USD for a market hog. What happens if Avian Flu gets rolling into US broiler flocks? Doubt it, but if it does, a Black Swan moment.

　　“发布实时信息。当你读到本报道时，我们已经通过Topigs-Norsvin高管证实，Topigs-Norsvin在上一财政年度已经损失了691万美元。上周，加裕公司人员面对Topigs-Norsvin同事怨声载道，我们自信地告诉世界，他们的财务状况。并非这不真实，但是我们有勇气说出真相。确实， Topigs-Norsvin，声称自己是世界第二大基因公司，对它来说肯定很难向利益相关者解释他们如何损失691万美元，而世界最大的基因公司（PIC）同一时期盈利了5000万美元。发布实时信息，Topigs-Norsvin员工应该得到一面镜子，认清自己的现实状况。

　　”Shoot the messenger. As you have read in this commentary, Topigs-Norsvin had a financial loss of $6.91 million US in their last fiscal year. This we had verified by senior Topigs-Norsvin executives. This past week, Genesus personnel were confronted by Topigs-Norsvin associates complaining profusely that we had the audacity to tell the world of their financial situation. Not that it wasn't true, but that we had the nerve to tell the truth. Indeed, it must be hard for Topigs-Norsvin, who claims to be the second largest genetic company in the world, to explain to its stakeholders how they lost $6.91 million USD while the largest genetic company （PIC） had profits in the $50 million USD range in the same industry. Shoot the messenger - Topigs-Norsvin people should get a mirror, focus on their own reality.

　　在西班牙的加裕核心场- Catalana de Pinsos

　　Genesus Nucleus in Spain

　　Genesus - Catalana de Pinsos

　　加裕公司十分高兴地宣布，在西班牙的Catalana de Pinsos作为我们的合作伙伴之一，用于生产种猪，现在可以购买来自“La Tor Nucleus Unit”核心场的后备母猪。有了Catalana de Pinsos，我们正在生产加裕高健康纯种母猪，不久之后，来自“Raurell Multiplier Unit”父母代猪场的加裕F1代后备销往西班牙和欧洲。

　　由Ballus家族在1968年建立的Catalana de Pinsos，已经将农场致力于纯种后备和F1代后备生产。他们的农场位于西班牙Catalonia封闭的Pyrenees 山脉地区。

　　Manel Ballus总裁，同Fermin Xixos总经理一起，成功地监管13000头母猪生产。Catalana de Pinsos支持创新、科学，和高效地养猪生产，并且他们已经同加裕公司从这个项目中发现了这点。

　　加裕公司十分自豪的宣布我们拥有来自Catalana de Pinsos的后备母猪可供购买。

　　Genesus is pleased to announce that gilts are now available for purchase as a part of our partnership with Catalana de Pinsos for the production of breeding stock in Spain from “La Tor Nucleus Unit”。 With Catalana de Pinsos, we have been producing our Genesus high health pure maternal lines, and soon, our Genesus F1 gilts from “Raurell Multiplier Unit” for Spain and Europe.

　　Established in 1968 by the Ballus family, Catalana de Pinsos has farms dedicated to both purebred gilts and F1 gilts production. Their farms are located in isolation in the Pyrenees Mountains region of Catalonia, Spain.

　　CEO Manel Ballus, along with his General Manager Fermin Xixos, successfully oversee 13,000 sows of production. Catalana de Pinsos favour innovation, science, and efficiency in swine production and they have found it with Genesus for this project.

　　Genesus is happy to announce that we have gilts available for purchase from Catalana de Pinsos.

　　For more information, please contact Mercedes Vega:

　　Telephone: +34-630-61-7001

　　Email: mvega@genesus.com