加裕养猪评论

　　Pork Commentary

　　Jim Long加裕公司总裁兼CEO

　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc.

　　美国生猪报告

　　更多的猪！

　　U.S Hogs and Pigs Report

　　More Pigs!

　　美国农业部上周五发布了6月1日生猪报告。非常多的生猪！220多万的市场。这将导致在未来5个月里每星期增加近10万头生猪供应给屠宰场。

　　The USDA released the June 1st Hogs and Report last Friday.  Lots more pigs!  2.2 million more markets.  This will lead to almost 100,000 more hogs per week for plants year over year in coming 5 months.

　　美国生猪报告  U.S Hogs and Pigs Report

　　简单计算，三月到五月底，比去年多了3%的母猪分娩数，多了1%的每窝提供的猪头数=生猪产量比去年多4%。

　　Simple Arithmetic March to end of May – 3% more farrowing’s – 1% bigger litter = Pig Crop 4% greater year over year.

　　毫无疑问，未来几周还会有更多的猪。加工商将继续保持良好的利润率，因为在新工厂投产之前，加工产能将受到挑战。在密歇根州的苏城和哈德菲尔德市，Seaboard和Triumph之间数百万美元的项目开始启动。

　　There is no doubt there will be more hogs in the coming weeks.  Packers will continue with excellent margins, as packing capacity will be challenged until the new plants come on stream.  The multi million-dollar question is start dates for Seaboard-Triumph in Sioux City and Hadfield in Coldwater, Michigan.

　　从去年秋天以来有两家新工厂投产。密苏里州的“Moon Ridge”(每天产能为3000头)和明尼苏达州温顿的“Prime Pork”(每天产能为6000头)。把这些加在一起，目前新的产能大约是每周5万多头。另外两家工厂在苏城(1万头一个班次)和科德沃特(1万头一个班次)。当所有都纳入运转，一周单班次产能可以屠宰16万头。一周两班次的产能可以达到30万。

　　Since last fall two new plants have come on stream.  Moon Ridge in Missouri (3,000 capacity head per day) and Prime Pork in Windom, Minnesota (capacity 6,000 head per day).  Put these together and new capacity is currently about 50,000 more per week.  The other two plants in Sioux City (10,000 a shift) Coldwater (10,000 a shift).  When all up and running 160,000 a week single shift capacity.  2 shifts pushing 300,000 a week capacity.

　　有趣的是6月1日的能繁母猪群是606.8万头。在12月1日，也就是6个月之前的能繁母猪群是609万头。如果正确的话，美国能繁母猪群比6个月前减少了2万头。不是一个数字就能表明母猪群的扩张。

　　One thing interesting is the June 1 breeding herd was 6.068 million.  The breeding herd on December 1 – 6 months ago was 6.090 million.  If correct the U.S breeding herd is 20,000 smaller then 6 months ago.  Not exactly a number indicating sow herd expansion.

　　需求

　　Demand

　　猪肉需求强劲，上周五猪肉价格为1.03美元。我们正受助于强劲的精选牛肉价格，为每磅2.25美元。牛肉的价格是猪肉的两倍还多。这无疑有助于猪肉需求和价格。上周五瘦肉型猪均价为每磅87.30美分。以这个价位，饲养分娩到育肥生猪的生产商每头猪盈利范围应该是50-70美元。很不错。

　　Pork Demand is strong with Pork cut-outs last Friday $1.03 lb.  We are being helped by strong Choice Beef cut-outs at $2.25 lb. Beef is more then double the price of pork.  This is certainly helping pork demand and prices.  Lean Hog Prices averaged 87.30￠ lb.  last Friday.  Farrow to Finish hog producers at this price should be making $50-70 head range. Its good.

　　我们发现，分割块的价值说明了一个事实。百磅培根价格是198.17，肋骨是141.24，臀部是109.42。任何胴体的所有部位都会有明显的脂肪才会更美味。腰肌和火腿曾带动胴体价值，而现在腰肌只有94.64而火腿是74.85。腰肌是腹部价格的一半。这告诉我们什么。消费者喜欢富含更多大理石纹脂肪猪肉的味道。每一分割块的的价格都是由需求决定的。在过去，腰肌和火腿是猪肉分割块中价格最高的部分。当我们的行业开始沉迷于瘦肉生产，把含大理石纹猪肉分割块剔除在外的时候，猪腹-排骨成为了每个分割块中最高价值的部分。消费者用他们的钱投票。我们什么时候才能得到消费者的需求？而它正凝视着我们的脸。

　　We find cut-out values tell a real story.  By Price a lb. Belly (Bacon) 198.17 Rib 141.24.  Butt 109.42.  All parts of any carcass that have significant fat which leads to flavor.  Loins and Hams used to drive carcass value but now only Loin 94.64 and Ham 74.85.  Loins are half the price of belly.  What does this tell us.  Consumers like the taste – flavor of Pork that has more fat-marbling.  Prices of each cut-out value is driven by demand.  In the past Loin and Ham have been the highest prices of the pork cut-out.  As our industry became obsessed with lean and took out the marbling the pork cut-out flipped with Belly-Ribs becoming the highest value per parts.  Consumers vote with their money.  When are we going to get what consumers want?  Its staring us in the face.

　　全国猪肉产业大会邀请

　　NPIC Invitation