加裕养猪评论

　　Pork Commentary

　　加裕总裁兼CEO   Jim Long

　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc

　　美国瘦肉型生猪达到90美分

　　US Lean Hogs Reach 90￠

　　上周五美国瘦肉型生猪价格达到每磅90美分。猪肉的需求和低量的生猪供应把价格推得更高。加工商的利润率仍然不错，美国农业部的猪肉胴体屠宰分割价格超过每磅1.01美元，生产商和加工商都在赚钱。这是猪肉产业在迪士尼乐园奇幻的一天。

　　Last Friday US lean hogs reached 90￠ lb. Pork demand is and lower hog supplies are driving prices higher.  Packers margins remain good with USDA pork carcass cut-outs over $1.01 per lb. Producers and Packers both making money.  It’s a virtual day at Disneyland for the Pork Industry.

　　我父亲总是说，市场导向的一个主要指标是“谁在给谁打电话”。 加工商称几乎好几个月没有人在寻找生猪，在世界猪肉博览会上我们接到了加工商的电话。对我们来说，这预示着价格上涨。自世界猪肉博览会以来，瘦肉型生猪已经上涨了每磅10美分或每头猪20美元。谁在给谁打电话！随着新屠宰加工厂的投产，我们期待更多的来电。随着猪肉分割价格超过了每磅1.00美元的浮动，以及更低量的生猪供应，经营良好的加工商盈利丰厚。我们预计未来几周将有更高的分割猪肉价格和更高的瘦肉型生猪价格。

　　My father always said a major indicator of market direction was “who’s calling who.”  For many months Packers called virtually no one looking for hogs, at the World Pork Expo we had Packers calling.  To us it was an indication of a coming surge in prices.  Since the WPX lean hogs have jumped over 10￠ lb. or $20 per head.  Who’s calling who! As the new packing plants come on board we expect even more calling.  With surging Pork cut - outs over $1.00 a lb. lower hog supplies, good packer margins.  We expect higher pork cut – outs and higher lean hog prices over the next few weeks.

　　几个月来，即使是夏季瘦肉型生猪期货也有60美分，我们坚定地写道，夏季的瘦肉型生猪将会达到80美分。这是基于我们所监测的全球生猪价格，它是北美在出口市场竞争的指标。出口拉动价格。许多预测者谈到很多国家他们从未去过或经营过业务。我们的业务有幸能获得全球市场的每日报道；这有助于我们预测过去被称为“后40英亩”。

　　For months even when summer lean hog futures were in the 60’s we steadfastly wrote summer lean hogs would reach into the 80’s.  This was based on Global Hog Prices we monitor as indicators where North American competes in the export market.  Exports pull prices.  A lot of forecasters talk about countries they never been too or done business in.  We are fortunate in our business to get daily Global Market exposure; it helps us see beyond what used to be called the “back 40 acres”.

　　这是加裕公司直接参与全球大型生产项目的原因之一。这是一个全球性的产业。我们需要“放眼全球，立足当下”。

　　It’s one of the reasons Genesus is directly involved in the Global Mega Producer project.  It’s a Global Industry.  We need to all “Think Globally, Act Locally”.

　　这个链接可以让你参观在世界猪肉博览会上举行的全球大型生产商的采访。

　　This link will take you to an interview re Global Mega Producer held at the World Pork Expo.

　　http://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/marketing/global-changes-pork-industry

　　安大略省猪肉会议

　　Ontario Pork Congress

　　过去一周我们出席了安大略省猪肉会议。安大略省是加拿大一个拥有30万头母猪的省份。

　　This past week we attended the Ontario Pork Congress.  Ontario as a province of Canada has about 300,000 sows.

　　我们的观察

　　Our Observations

　　加拿大的价格反映出开心的生产商正在冲击着美国生猪价格，1加元价值75美分，正指挥着加拿大从分娩到育肥之间的利润（目前每头猪70-90美元）。

　　Happy Producers Surging U.S hog prices which Canada mirrors and a Canadian dollar that is worth 75￠ to the U.S dollar is leading to Canadian Farrow to Finish profits of between ($70-90 per head currently)

　　安大略没有足够的屠宰加工产能。每周有2-2.5万头猪运输10个小时到魁北克的市场。

　　Ontario has not enough packing capacity.  20-25,000 head a week travel 10 hours to Quebec for market.

　　安大略省有很多生产商。其中只有2个生产商拥有超过1万头母猪，他们在15000头的范围内。大多数是家庭农场，种玉米，养猪，拥有自己的土地。许多地区的土地是每英亩2万加元(44,000美元每公顷)。来自土地和牲畜生产的财富使许多生产商拥有数百万的资产净值。

　　Ontario has many producers.  There are only 2 producers with over 10,000 sows, they are in the 15,000 range.  Most are family farms, grow corn, raise hogs, own land.  Land is in many areas is C $20,000 an acre ($44,000 Hectare).  The wealth from land and livestock production has lead to many producers having net worth in the multi million range.

　　有一些新的母猪场正在建造，一些已经建完。很难获得建筑许可。2500头的母猪场-500万美元。育肥场里2500头猪需要价值300美元的空间。有些扩张，但较小的生产质量。每英亩土地价值2万美元，繁育更新，猪舍-设备的使用年限，劳动力的可用性，所有这些使得一些人退出了生产。当尘埃落定时，我们预计不会有多少净母猪数量扩张。

　　There are some new sow barns being built, some finishing.  Hard to get building permits to build.  Sow Barns 2500 sows - $5 million U.S.  Finishing $300 U.S space (2500 head).  Some expansion but also smaller produces quality.  Land at $20,000 acre, generational change, age of barns – equipment, labor availability, all contributing to some producer exiting.  When dust settles we expect little net sow expansion.

　　在安大略省猪肉会议上，有很多关于密歇根州新屠宰加工厂的言论。那里离一些安大略生产商只有不到4小时的路程。当这个厂开始投建的时候，可能会导致一些猪群的移动。当密歇根州的屠宰加工厂投产时，泰森食品、印度猪肉和JBS Swift ad Hadfield可采购的生猪将会更少。

　　Lots of talk at Ontario Pork Congress about the new packing plant in Michigan.  It is less then 4 hours from some Ontario Producers.  When it starts up probably will lead to some shifting where hogs go.  Tyson, Indian Pork and JBS Swift ad Hadfield pens will have fewer hogs to chase when Michigan starts.

　　在加拿大，加工商不会购买瘦肉精生猪。而美国仍然有大量的瘦肉精猪。安大略省的生猪生产商注意到了饲喂瘦肉精生猪在成本和性能方面的好处。生产商已经迷失在这种利益中了。有几个生产商告诉我们，如果美国的加工商会买饲喂瘦肉精的猪，那么他们会想去美国养猪。这就是经济优势。

　　In Canada Packers will not purchase Paylean hogs.  In the U.S lots of Paylean pigs still fed.  Ontario Hog Producers see the benefit of feeding Paylean in cost and performance.  The Producers have lost that benefit.  A couple producers told us that if U.S packers would buy Paylean fed pigs, they would want to go there.  The economic advantage.

　　全球大型生产商

　　Global Mega Producers