美国瘦肉型生猪价格持续走高养殖者开始盈利了

发布: 2017-06-03 | 作者: 佚名 | 来源: 转载

　　加裕养猪评论

　　Pork Commentary

　　加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long

　　Jim Long President-CEO Genesus Inc.

　　美国瘦肉型生猪价格持续走高

　　U.S Lean Hog Prices Continue to Go Higher

　　一个月之前，美国53-54%瘦肉型生猪价格为每磅60美分。上周五价格为74.74美分，一个月之内每头猪增加了30美元。现在养殖者不再亏损而是开始盈利了。我们预计未来几周瘦肉型生猪价格还会持续走强。

　　A month ago the U.S lean hog price for 53-54% hogs was 60￠ lb. Last Friday they were 74.74￠ lb. a $30 per head increase in a month. Now producers are getting profits not just red ink. We expect lean hogs to continue to get stronger in the coming weeks.

　　一个促进美国猪肉出口的因素是，美元兑多数货币走低。美元指数从1月1日的103.21点，周一收于6个月的最低96.97点，跌幅6%。走低的美元推高了美国生猪的价格和全球竞争力。

　　A factor supporting U.S pork exports is the lowering of the U.S dollar relative to many currencies. The U.S dollar index reflects this declining from 103.21 at the first of January to closing at a six month low Monday at 96.97 a 6% decline. A

　　lower U.S dollar supports higher U.S hog prices and their global competiveness.

　　我们手上最新的美国猪肉出口数据为3月份（227,995吨），比去年同期增长了16%。3月出口总额创下了2016年11月以来的月度最高水平。我们目前看到的美元下跌应该还会继续支持美国猪肉出口。

　　The latest data we have on U.S pork exports is March (227,955 metric tons) which was 16% higher then the same month last year. March topped the previous monthly high set in November 2016. A U.S dollar decline that we are seeing currently should support U.S pork exports ongoing.

　　在我们看来，生猪体重正在下降。一周前美国瘦肉型生猪体重为212.24磅，而周一下降到209.66磅。一年前的平均体重则是212.91磅。美国生产商似乎正在积极地抛售来保持现在的势头，在持续高温的天气到来时，我们预计市场生猪体重将进一步迅速下降。

　　It appears to us hog weights are declining. U.S lean hog weights were 212.24 a week ago and appear to be dropping with Monday dropping to 209.66 lbs. A year ago they were averaging 212.91 lbs. It appears to us producers are marketing aggressively to stay current, when sustained hot weather comes we expect a further rapid decline in market hog weights.

　　七月廋肉猪期货已经突破了每磅80美分。一个月的时间就涨到了80美分，真的是令人惊讶。4月21日的时候7月廋肉猪期货价格为每磅69.225美分。现在已经超过了80美分。心理，供应，需求都会影响市场的变化。猪价已经发生了反转，现在市场看涨。

　　July lean hog futures have now breached 80￠ lean a lb. It’s amazing what a month can do. On April 21 July lean hogs were at 69.225￠ lb. Now over 80￠. Psychology, Supply, Demand go into what happens in a market. The pendulum has swung and the market is bullish.

　　猪肉市场可以消化掉更高的的瘦肉猪价格。周一美国猪肉分割价格为每磅87.83美分，每磅分割猪肉和瘦猪肉价格之间仍有13美分的空间。加工厂仍然运营良好。随着今年夏天新的加工屠宰场投产，加工商的利润率将会下降。生产商可以从中分享到更高的份额。

　　The Pork market can handle the higher lean hog prices. U.S pork cut-outs Monday were 87.83￠ lb. There is still 13￠ lb. spread between cut-outs and lean hog prices. Packers are still doing quite fine. As the new packing plants come on stream this summer packer margins will decline. This giving producers a better share of the pie.

　　猪肉加工商一直在赚钱。这对我们行业来说是积极地，强大的加工商有能力支付生猪。保持屠宰现代化，推动国内和出口销售。

　　Pork Packers have been making good money. This is a positive for our industry, strong packers have resources to pay for hogs. Keep plants modern and push domestic and export sales.

　　举个例子，泰森公司最近公布了6个月的创纪录业绩。净营业收入为16.05亿美元。

　　泰森食品公司总裁兼CEO Tom Hayes说“我们的牛肉和猪肉业务在第二季度创造了巨大的营业收入，使我们能够投资于我们增值业务的长期增长”。

　　强大的屠宰厂对于养殖者来说是有利的。当加拿大Quality加工厂破产时，许多生产商没有收到他们生猪的货款。此外，随着Quality的转让和竞争减少，生产商的收入也随后减少了。美国新建的屠宰场和许多强大的加工厂的资产负债表，将对今年的生产者和未来的几家厂商有利。

　　Case in point is Tyson, which recently reported a record first 6 months. Net Operating Income $1.605 billion.

　　Tom Hayes President and Chief Executive Officer of Tyson Foods “Our Beef and Pork segments generated tremendous operating income in the second quarter, allowing us to invest in the long term growth of our value added businesses.

　　Strong Packers are good for producers. When Quality Packers went out of business in Canada, many producers didn’t get paid for their hogs. Also with the demise of Quality and less competition, producers got paid less for hogs going forward. The new U.S plants and many strong packer balance sheets will be good for producers this year and for several to come.

　　加裕新闻稿

　　Genesus Press Release

　　加裕公司与铁骑力士集团签署合作协议

　　Genesus and TQLS Sign Contract

　　铁骑力士集团是由雷文勇先生（英文名雷霆）25年前创办。它是农业部指定的中国农业综合企业之一，有3条产业线，包括牲畜饲料、畜禽养殖和食品加工。在全国拥有51家子公司，超过6000名员工，年营业额在20亿美元左右。该公司目前存栏商品蛋鸡约300万只，种鸭60万只和母猪2万头。业务未来发展将专注于生产和销售品牌猪肉，在四个主要地区投入400万头生猪产能，分别是四川三台县，四川凉山地区，贵州铜仁地区和新疆石河子地区。Genesus将提供来自加拿大的注册纯种猪。我们将提供种猪遗传和技术服务，利用这些新遗传资源，降低生猪生产成本、改善猪肉品质，促成TQLS商业策略。

　　TQLS was formed by Mr. Lei Wenyong (Thunder in English name) 25 years ago. It is one of the China National Agribusiness Flagships designated by the Ministry of Agriculture with three business lines including livestock feed, livestock and poultry farming and food processing. There are over 6,000 employees working for its 51 subsidies across the country with annual turnover near USD $ 2 billion. The Company currently has an inventory of about 3 million egg layers, 600,000 breeding ducks and 20,000 sows. The future expansion of business will focus on production and marketing of branded pork with an projected capacity 4 million hogs in four major locations-Santai County of Sichuan, Liangshan Region of Sichuan, Tongren prefecture of Guizhou and Shihezi prefecture of Xinjiang. Genesus will provide registered purebred & swine breeding stock from Canada. These new genetics will contribute to above TQLS business strategy by lowering the hog production cost and improving meat quality through the supply of swine genetics and technical service.