美国夏季廋肉猪合约创新高还将继续涨

发布: 2017-06-07 | 作者: 佚名 | 来源: 转载

　　加裕养猪评论

　　Pork Commentary

　　加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long

　　Jim Long President-CEO Genesus Inc.

　　美国夏季廋肉猪合约创新高

　　U.S Summer Lean Hog Contracts Reach New Highs

　　上周，芝加哥商品交易所夏季廋肉型生猪合约保持着牛市行情，周五收盘时达到了合约的新高。6月为81.85美分，7月为81.900美分，8月为81.300美分。就在一个多月前的4月21日，6月份的瘦肉型生猪期货价格为67.77美分。自4月21日以来，6月份每头猪的期货价格上涨了大约30美元。如果有的话，这是一个看涨的举动。价格是由需求驱动的，上周五美国分割猪肉价格是每磅90.79美元反映了这点。国内和全球的需求正在推高加工商从猪肉买家手中获得强劲价格的能力。尽管美国猪肉产量在过去几周创记录了。猪肉需求目前是惊人的，我们预计在未来几周过去几周，生猪市场数量季节性减少，猪肉价格将继续上涨。

　　The bullish run of summer Lean Hog Contracts continued last week with the CME Friday close reaching new life of contract highs. June 81.85, July 81.900, August 81.300. On April 21 just over a month ago June lean hog futures were 67.77. Since April 21 June has jumped about $30 per hog. That is a bullish move if there ever was one. Its been driven by demand, reflected by U.S Pork Cut-Outs which were $90.79 a lb. last Friday. Domestic and Global demand is pushing the ability of Packers to get strong prices from pork buyers. This despite record U.S pork production the last several weeks. Pork demand is currently phenomenal and we expect over the coming weeks as hog market numbers seasonally decline the pork cut out and hog prices will continue to surge higher.

　　如此来看，美国胴体牛肉的分割价格从可供精选的每磅2.18美元上升到现在可选的每磅2.45美元。而猪肉分割出来后以90美分的价格批发销售，相当于目前牛肉分割价格的40%。对消费者来说猪肉是有竞争力的红肉。

　　To put in perspective U.S Beef cut outs for a carcass range from Select $2.18 lb. to Choice $2.45 lb. Pork cut outs at 90￠ puts wholesale pork meat at 40% of current beef cut out. Pork is the competitive red meat for consumers.

　　展望未来，如果我们能够摆脱对瘦肉生产的迷恋，专注于猪肉的口味和风味，那么从牛肉市场中分一杯羹貌似也是有可能的。如果我们能提供符合消费者口味和风味的猪肉产品，对比牛肉的价格，猪肉价格还可以更高。消费者用他们的钱进行投票，现在他们支付牛肉要比支付猪肉更多的钱。如果我们把注意力集中在需求上，就有机会将我们生产的猪肉朝向更好口味的方向发展。这意味着更深色的猪肉，更高的系水力和更多的大理石花纹。口味，风味是推动生猪价格和猪肉价格上涨的关键。人们因为味道而吃牛肉，但他们并不想花更多的钱。

　　Going forward if we could ever get rid of our obsession with lean in our industry and focus on pork with better taste and flavor the opportunities to pull market share from beef is plausible. The ratio of beef price versus pork allows for higher pork prices if we can deliver a product that meets the consumers taste and flavor desires. Consumers vote with their money and currently they will pay significantly more for Beef then Pork. There is an opportunity for Pork if we focus on demand, to evolve our pork we produce more in the direction of better tasting pork. That means darker pork, high water holding capacity and more marbling. Taste, Flavor is our key to pushing hog prices and pork prices higher. People eat beef because of taste, they didn’t necessarily want to spend more money.

　　世界猪肉博览会

　　World Pork Expo

　　下周世界猪肉博览会将会在得梅因举行。美国和国际养猪业人士是时候该相聚一起。我们十分期待本次博览会，因为我们可以见到客户和业内的朋友了。与同行的互动是有价值的。我们都可能陷入自己的泡沫中，最好能够从中走出来，可以通过别人和想法暴露出来。我们行业在过去的几年里迅速发展。整合已经发生并将继续。现在27个全球大型生产商拥有超过10万头母猪。我们行业的发展还将继续。我们都面临着要跟上步伐的挑战。即将到来的世界猪肉博览会向我们所有人展示行业的现状和未来。加裕公司的展台将位于各种行业展会东侧。邀请各位顺路来我们展会，一同聊聊养猪。你我的生计可能取决于养猪行业和行业走向。

　　Next week is the World Pork Expo in Des Moines. It is a time for the U.S and International industry to get together. We look forward to it because we get to see customers and industry friends. There is value in interaction with fellow producers. We all can get in our own bubble and its good to get out and be exposed to other people and ideas. Our industry has evolved mightily over the years. Consolidation has and will continue. There are now 27 Global Mega Producers with over 100,000 sows. Evolution will continue in our industry. We all are challenged to keep up. Coming to the World Pork Expo exposes us all to what’s here and what’s coming. We will be in the Genesus Tent East of the Varied Industry Building. You’re invited to drop by and talk Pigs. You like me livelihood probably depends on it and where its going.

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